Most of my election effort will be trying to elect Lib Dems. But if you are non-party political and want to influence the election, this post is for you*.
Recognise that seats matter more than votes
In the UK political system seats are all that matter in practice. You probably can’t remember what percentage of the vote Labour got in 2005. But you can almost certainly remember who was in power after the 2005 election.
So anything you want to achieve needs to influence how many MPs get elected who agree with you.
Not all seats matter the same in the election
Britain’s electoral system means that most seats stay with the same party time after time.
Roughly 200 seats, out of 650, really matter.
Not all votes are the same
Point 2 means that the only votes that really matter are in the marginal 200 seats.
But roughly 50% of voters always stick with the same party. Leaving only 50% of people worth trying to influence, in the 200 constituencies you are targeting.
Not everyone votes
Voting is voluntary in Britain.
Even in a really high turnout election, only about 70% of people will vote.
So you need to target a specific type of person
Add together points 1, 2, 3 and 4 and it means that you need to target swing voters in swing seats who might realistically vote.
Who are these people?
They are a varied bunch. But we can look at what is most typical of them.
Almost every bit of research I’ve seen says that this group is concentrated:
- Living in the suburbs of Britain’s cities and towns. This is where the swing constituencies are. Think of suburban Leamington Spa or Derby.
- Middle aged. Young voters tend to have very low turnout (and there aren’t enough of them). Old voters tend not to change their minds, after a lifetime of voting a particular way.
- Not very interested in politics. In fact giving very little attention to politics day to day. This group typically make up their minds during the election campaign, often on election day. A surprisingly large number make up their minds in the voting booth.
If you want to make an impact consider if you are going be relevant to this group of voters.
If not what are you going to change?
* Psephologists will notice some significant simplifications here. For everyone else – if you seriously doubt any of these points, drop me a line and I’ll dig out sourcing.